房东们年底前还能挂牌卖房吗

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“买房的小手停一停。”

没想到这成了我身边买房朋友的口头禅，那种买涨不买跌的氛围正在你我身边悄悄弥漫，结果我原本年底前还要不要上车的选题就变成了今天这题。

似乎不买房正在成为大家共识。

既然如此，那买房的对面，我们的房东，接下来到年底前你的房子还要不要挂呢，我认认真真思考了这个问题，为了不水这题我决定还是从数据着手，也许说话还分个主观客观，但数据不会，尤其那几个关键数据。

01 年前的购房人还在么

如果客户都不来了，挂牌意义就有点空，所以挂不挂牌第一题先问问：下半年购房者还在不在？

不过客户数据不是想找就找的，还好我还是找到了份可以说明这个问题的数据，来自上海链家的客户数据显示，上海链家在二手市场的挂牌率大概在70%，成交市占25%左右，它的客户数据应该介于25%-70%之间。

不管数据靠前靠后都不妨碍这是份可以说明市场客户的数据，这份数据最近刚刚显现出金九的味道，原本8月每周末的日均看房人数还停留在1万-1.1万，进入9月这个数据就来到1.1万-1.2万，横向对比下这个数据比8月高、比6月低，差不多3月末、4月初的水平。

在这个客户=机会的市场里，多出来的客户就意味成交概率，所以说有点金九的意思 ，不过后面的趋势并不是这样，新增客户这件事也是有自己波动规律的 ，简言之就是越到年底买房人越少。

这件事自从链家2019年统计这份数据以来几乎屡试不爽 。

除了2020年年底这波看涨行情里涌进大量慌张买房的人，其他正常年份越到年底人越少，我细看了下这份2019年以来客户数据，它的波动规律和每年成交的波动也几乎对应的上。

每年三四月进入看房高峰、五六月开始冷静、七八月进入平淡期，九十月市场又开始活跃、但这之后看房人数开始清晰下滑。 

这里面2019年市场到年底开始走高，2020年底明确走高、2023年从9月的认房不认贷到12月14日放开普宅标准，就这，也只有2020年的看房人在年底甩了个尾。

所以你看数据的轻微起伏都不用太计较，整体走势才是真正值得把握的，看房人数的整体走势就是越到年底看你房的客户就越少、房子成交概率越小，日常市场体感这件事也果然是循规蹈矩的。

如果非得为这部分下个结论的话那就是，年前不是挂牌的好时候，如果非得挂把握住九十月。

02 还在扩大的议价空间

砍价这件事从去年下半年到今年快被玩坏了，从自带屠龙刀进场的客户到砍到房东爸妈都快不认识的挂牌价，市场上能成交的房源不断刷新我们认知，日常中介朋友圈发的最多就两类，新房房源和降价房源。

调侃和朋友圈的背后，这两年议价空间也确确实实变化大，实不相瞒2023年以前我听过的市场议价空间都在5%以内波动，差不多500万的房子议价25万的样子就到底了，2023年上半年也差不多这个议价空间，这之后数据 就开始了放飞自我。

从2023年5月22日这周冲出5%后面在2023年年底顺利飙到7%， 又在今年5月来到8%。

无论7%还是8%都是市场少有出现的数字，而更重要的也是这个数据的走势，我看了下从2023年首周到上周的87周的数据，从去年下半年到今年基本是不断走高的趋势，5·27新政后议价空间刹了会车，最近这个数字直到上周还是在不断走高的，大概率年底这里的7%议价空间还得 再往上走走。

两周前我跟各位说市场成交出现回暖，成交量冒头的背后是不断走高的议价空间，以价换量这件事会出现在两周前，也大概率会出现在年底前，所以年底前怎么说呢，如果你要挂牌ok的，但要做好被砍价的准备，而且是狠狠砍的那种。

可能这也是为什么每年到这时候新增挂牌就会减少的原因吧。

这里的新增挂牌跟库存挂牌是两件事，日常跟大家说挂牌库存说的是二手存量去化问题，但新增挂牌是纯纯的房东挂牌意愿数据。

我看了下链家每月的新增挂牌数据，房东的新增挂牌也确实在每年最后几个月出现下滑，以链家70%挂牌市占的占比，它每天的新增挂牌能很大程度说明挂牌市场，进入这个9月我看房东的挂牌热情也起来了，8月日均800-900套的新增挂牌，到了9月就变成了日均1000套上下。

当然这也是有规律的，2019年以来这个数据也是每年都是越年尾越少量， 没有一年例外。

我想今年年底前这段时间也不例外，年底前不卖房这件事原来已经是一种默契了。

那你说别人小心我贪婪可不可以，当然可以，只不过别忘了库存房源已经来到高位了，链家后台除了每天新增外，还有17.31万套库存，这也是新高数字，而这也成为新增挂牌去化最大的背景，这些数据都在小声说着一个体感事实。

年底客户+房源都会减少这几乎是大家莫能明状的经验之谈，有时候经验之谈也确实是市场规律经历的多了才会有对市场惯性体感，而今天这些数据也算是将这些市场体感具象化了。

03 “年底了，我的房子还挂牌么”

这个问题其实每个人个人选择，就跟买房一样，只不过站在市场角度如果我们做出卖房选择的时候，你大概率会被划拨到哪个队伍、又大概率会遇到什么，购房者和议价空间以及新增挂牌这三个维度是我们能想到跟卖房这件事贴的最近的数据。

除了这些数据维度我也将这个问题问到一位从业近20年的中介老师，他告诉我：需求为大，如果你真的有需求，这些市场预测无穷尽也无意义，不管你是刚需置换，还是资产置换，要么低买低卖、要么高买高卖。

如果卖房需求到位了不用管任何市场预测，不 管后面降还是不降、还是明年三月回暖还是不回暖，只有一种情况要谨慎挂牌，就是如果你是变现的话，那要三思。

本文来自微信公众号“真叫卢俊”，作者：真叫卢俊团队，36氪经授权发布。

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