过完这个周末，估计大多数朋友马上就要正式投入工作了。春节假期这几天，汽车圈也迎来了难得的平静。相比起前几年，虽然今年有更多的朋友都选择开电动车出远门，但似乎大家的里程焦虑和充电焦虑都没过去那么严重了，对高速快充站的吐槽也少了。

我相信，随着电动车纯电续航能力的提升、800V高压平台的向下普及，以及车企和第三方高速充换电站的增加，开电动车长途出行将会变得越来越轻松和平常，不管是选择插混/增程抑或纯电，都会更加理性，技术路线之争也会告一段落。

我认为2024年车圈最大的看点必然会是“智能化”，也就是众多行内人所讲的智能电动车的“下半场”。

在春节前，“华为系”的问界、阿维塔都向用户推送了城市NCA功能，蔚来也赶在放假前向领航团用户推送了带城区领航功能的全域NOP+进行内测。再加上小鹏和理想，在高阶智驾的赛道上，“第一军团”已经开始加速抛离其他对手。

但有一说一，不管是更早些推送的小鹏XNGP，还是问界M7的城区NCA、蔚来的全域NOP+，虽然在众多城市的城区道路上都已经做到了“能用”，但在面对一些复杂路况时，都还做不到完全的“零接管”。

我并非是想“黑”这些品牌或者“唱衰”高阶智驾技术的前景，我只是想告诉大家，目前我们仍需要冷静和理性看待这些高阶智驾技术，尤其是要面对各种复杂多变场景的城区领航辅助功能。

就拿我前几天在曾发在微博上引发不少朋友讨论的一个场景来举例子吧。

那是个在广州城区里特别常见的场景。我从高架的匝道下来，出口离我马上要右转的路口之间目测也就只有大概30米左右的距离，其中画了虚线允许向右变道的长度只有大概不到一半。

当系统从匝道下来打了转向灯并开始减速，准备在虚线位置变道右转时，侧后方突然驶出一辆出租车。

屏幕上显示，系统探测到了出租车，马上选择了暂停变道和减速煞停避让的动作。

从减速打灯变道、到感知到后方来车并同时语音提示，再到停止变道和减速煞停避让，全过程可以说都没任何槽点，感知和规控能力都可以给到高分。但美中不足的是，就因为这一个安全避让动作后，我的车停下来时已经错过了虚线范围，系统也不能继续变道了，这时候我不得不主动人工接管，继续直行再掉头回来。

就这样，系统虽然没做错任何事，既遵守了交通规则也确保了安全，甚至比很多新手都开得更让人安心，但客观上仍错失了一次“零接管”的完美成绩。

这样的路况和场景在广州十分常见，我不敢盲目推测其他几个品牌的智驾系统在同样情况下会做出怎样的处理，但我自己“复盘”后比较确定的是，如果是我自己或者其他老司机开车，估计大概率是可以在虚线区就成功变道通过的了。

毕竟经验丰富的老司机都是更善于提前“预判别人的预判”，和其他车进行博弈的，大家懂的应该都懂，这也是目前人类老司机的优势。

要做到足够媲美人类的预判能力，前提是能理解真实世界里人类的行为逻辑和物理规律。这过去一直都是AI大模型的短板。

但前两天OpenAI（推出ChatGPT的公司）发布了一个轰动世界的AI大模型Sora。Sora可以根据文字的描述自动生成最长1分钟的包含不同角度镜头和复杂场景的视频。从Open AI官方发出的几支视频来看，真算得上是能“以假乱真”了。

而按照OpenAI的说法，他们“正在教AI理解和模拟运动中的物理世界，目标是训练模型来帮助人们解决现实世界交互的问题。”而根据文字描述来生成视频，仅仅是整个计划其中的一步。

这里所谓的“交互”，是指随着镜头移动，潮湿地面反射光线的变化；一堆纸飞机在树林中飞过时树叶的摆动；人在雪地上走过会留下足印，车轮在泥路上卷起的尘土等等。

虽然用文本生成视频的AI技术和智驾技术似乎八杆子也打不着，但Sora的出现让我不由得在想，智驾的软件工程师们是否也能让智驾的大模型学会理解车与周边其他交通参与者的“互动”，能做到“预判别人的预判”，那是否就能更快达到真正老司机的驾驶水平呢？

这个问题或许要留给那些技术大牛来回答了。但掐指一算，从“蔚小理”2021年先后发布高速领航辅助到现在，也才过去两年左右的时间，高速领航辅助基本上已经成为各汽车品牌高阶智驾技术中的基础能力。

如果从2024年开始算起，不知道城区领航辅助什么时候才会成为中高端智能电动车的“标配”呢？

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技术解读

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 韦熙宇

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