《经济学人》双语：人工智能革命失败了吗？

原文标题：
Doesn’t compute
What happened to the artificial-intelligence investment boom?
Perhaps AI is a busted flush. Perhaps the revolution will just take time
无法计算
人工智能投资热潮怎么了？
或许是人工智能失败了。或许是AI革命还需要时间

[Paragraph 1]
MANY ECONOMISTS believe that generative artificial intelligence (AI) is about to transform the global economy.
许多经济学家认为，生成人工智能 (AI) 即将改变全球经济。

A paper published last year by Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu of Epoch, a research firm, argues that “explosive growth”, with GDP zooming upwards, is “plausible with AI capable of broadly substituting for human labour”.
研究公司Epoch的埃格·埃迪尔和塔马伊·贝西罗格卢去年发表的一篇论文认为，"在人工智能能够广泛替代人类劳动的情况下，爆炸性增长、GDP 上涨是可能的"。

Erik Brynjolfsson of Stanford University has said that he expects AI “to power a productivity boom in the coming years”.
斯坦福大学的埃里克·布林约尔松说，他预计人工智能“将在未来几年推动生产力的繁荣”。

[Paragraph 2]

For such an economic transformation to take place, firms need to spend big on software, communications, equipment and factories, enabling AI to slot into production processes.

要实现这样的经济转型，企业需要在软件、通信、设备和工厂上投入大量资金，使人工智能能够融入生产流程。

An investment boom was required to allow previous breakthroughs, such as the tractor and the personal computer, to spread across the economy.

要出现以往的诸如拖拉机和个人电脑的突破能在整个经济中的普及，就需要投资热潮。

From 1992 to 1999 American non-residential investment rose by 3% of GDP, for instance, driven in large part by spending on computer technologies.

例如，1992 -1999 年，美国非住宅投资占 GDP的比例上升了3%，这在很大程度上是由计算机技术支出推动的。

Yet so far there is little sign of an AI splurge. Across the world, capital expenditure by businesses (or “capex”) is remarkably weak.
然而，到目前为止，人工智能的支出热潮还没有出现。纵观全球，企业的资本支出（或称 "资本支出"）明显疲软。

[Paragraph 3]
After sluggish growth in the years before the covid-19 pandemic, capex increased as lockdowns lifted (see chart).
在新冠疫情的前几年时间里，资本支出增长缓慢，后来解封，资本支出有所增加（见图）。

In early 2022 it was rising at an annualised rate of about 8% a year. A mood of techno-optimism had gripped some businesses, while others sought to firm up supply chains.
2022年初，资本支出的年增长率约为 8%。一些企业陷入了技术乐观主义的情绪，而另一些企业则寻求加强供应链。

Capex then slowed later the same year, owing to the effects of geopolitical uncertainty and higher interest rates.
然而，到同年的下半年，由于地缘政治不确定性和利率上升的影响，资本支出开始放缓。

On the eve of the release of OpenAI’s GPT-4 in March 2023, global capex spending was growing at an annualised rate of about 3%.
在2023年3月OpenAI 的 GPT-4 发布前夕，全球资本支出的年增长率约为 3%。

[Paragraph 4]
Today some companies are once again ramping up capex, to seize what they see as the enormous opportunity in AI.
如今，一些公司再次加大资本支出，以抓住他们所认为的人工智能领域的巨大机遇。

This year forecasters reckon that Microsoft’s spending (including on research and development) will probably rise by close to 20%. Nvidia’s is set to soar by upwards of 30%.
据预测，今年微软的支出（包括研发支出）可能会增长近 20%。英伟达的支出将增长30%以上。

“AI will be our biggest investment area in 2024, both in engineering and compute resources,” reported Mark Zuckerberg, Meta’s boss, at the end of last year.
Meta老板马克·扎克伯格在去年年底报告说：“2024年，人工智能将成为我们最大的投资领域，无论是在工程方面还是计算资源方面。”

[Paragraph 5]
Elsewhere, though, plans are more modest. Across the economy as a whole, the situation is even bleaker.
不过，其他公司的支出计划则更为温和。就整个经济而言，情况更加黯淡。

An American capex “tracker” produced by Goldman Sachs, a bank, offers a picture of businesses’ outlays, as well as hinting at future intentions. It is currently falling by 4% year on year.
高盛银行制作的美国资本支出“追踪器”提供了企业支出的情况，并暗示了未来的计划。目前，资本支出同比下降了 4%。

[Paragraph 6]
Surely, with the AI excitement, spending on information technologies is at least soaring? Not quite.
随着人工智能的兴起，信息技术方面的支出至少会激增吧？并非如此。

In the third quarter of 2023 American firms’ investment in “information-processing equipment and software” fell by 0.4% year on year.
2023年第三季度，美国企业对“信息处理设备和软件”的投资同比下降了0.4%。

[Paragraph 7]
Similar trends can be seen worldwide.
全球也呈现出了类似的趋势。

According to national-accounts data for the OECD club of mostly rich countries, which go up to the third quarter of 2023, investment spending—including by governments—is growing more slowly than before the pandemic.
根据截至 2023 年第三季度的经合组织俱乐部成员国的国民账户数据，投资支出（包括政府的投资支出）的增长速度比疫情前要慢。

[Paragraph 8]
An official survey in Japan does point to sharply higher capex growth, after years of sluggishness.
日本的一项官方调查显示，资本支出在多年低迷之后出现大幅增长。

Yet this probably reflects factors specific to that country, such as corporate-governance reforms.
但这可能反映了日本的特殊因素，如企业管理改革。

A worsening outlook for the economy in Europe makes things difficult. Investment intentions of services firms in the European Union are less than half as ambitious as they were in early 2022.
欧洲经济前景恶化使情况变得困难。欧盟服务业公司的投资意向还不到 2022 年初的一半。

British businesses plan to raise capex by a mere 3% over the next year, compared with 10% when asked in early 2022.
英国企业计划在明年将资本支出提高 3%，而在 2022 年初，这一数字为 10%。

[Paragraph 9]
These trends suggest one of two things.
这些趋势表明了两种可能性。

The first is that generative AI is a busted flush. Big tech firms love the technology, but are going to struggle to find customers for the products and services that they have spent tens of billions of dollars developing.
第一种情况是，生成式人工智能已经失败了。大型科技公司喜欢这项技术，但它们花费数百亿美元开发的产品和服务却很难找到客户。

It would not be the first time in recent history that technologists have overestimated demand for new innovations. Think of the metaverse.
在近代历史上，技术专家高估新创新的需求并非首次。想想元宇宙吧。

[Paragraph 10]
The second interpretation is less gloomy, and more plausible. Adoption of new general-purpose tech tends to take time.
第二种解释较为乐观，也更为合理。通用新技术的普及通常需要时间。

Return to the example of the personal computer. Microsoft released a groundbreaking operating system in 1995, but American firms only ramped up spending on software in the late 1990s.
以个人电脑为例，微软在1995年发布了划时代的操作系统，但美国公司直到 90年代末才增加了软件支出。

Although analysis by Goldman Sachs suggests that only 5% of chief executives expect AI to have a “significant impact” on their business within one to two years, 65% think it will have an impact in the next three to five.
高盛的分析表明，只有5%的首席执行官预计人工智能将在一两年内对自己公司业务产生“重大影响”，而65%的首席执行官则认为未来三到五年才会产生影响。

AI is still likely to change the economy, even if it will not do so immediately.
人工智能仍然有可能改变经济，只是不会立即改变。

（恭喜读完，本篇英语词汇量846左右）
原文出自：2024年1月13日《The Economist》Finance & economics版
精读笔记来源于：自由英语之路
本文翻译整理: Irene
本文编辑校对: Irene
仅供个人英语学习交流使用。

【补充资料】（来自于网络）
资本支出（Capital Expenditure）的对称是“收益支出”或者“成本支出”。是指企业为取得长期资产而发生的支出。或为了取得为一个以上会计期间提供效益的财产或劳务所发生的支出。该项支出发生时，都应予以本金化，先记入适当的资产帐户，然后再按各期受益程度转作费用。资本支出通常包括固定资产增置及改造支出。这些支出的目的不是维持其原有的服务能力，而是为了获得更大的未来效益。

【重点句子】（3个）
Yet so far there is little sign of an AI splurge. Across the world, capital expenditure by businesses (or “capex”) is remarkably weak.

然而，到目前为止，人工智能的支出热潮还没有出现。纵观全球，企业的资本支出（或称 "资本支出"）明显疲软。

The first is that generative AI is a busted flush. Big tech firms love the technology, but are going to struggle to find customers for the products and services that they have spent tens of billions of dollars developing.
第一种情况是，生成式人工智能已经失败了。大型科技公司喜欢这项技术，但它们花费数百亿美元开发的产品和服务却很难找到客户。

The second interpretation is less gloomy, and more plausible. Adoption of new general-purpose tech tends to take time.
第二种解释较为乐观，也更为合理。通用新技术的普及通常需要时间。