地沟油都火上天了，你还在埋怨赚钱难？

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商机无处不在，就看你有无慧眼。

人人喊打的地沟油成了香饽饽。

近日，据外媒报道，美国政府发布的数据，今年上半年，美国进口餐废油脂即俗称的地沟油（UCO，即Used Cooking Oil）约100万吨，其中从中国进口占比约为60%。2023年，中国占美国“地沟油”进口量的50%。要知道，2022年这一比例仅占0.1%。

仅仅一年多时间，进口量占比从0.1%飙升至60%，惊人的数字变化背后到底暗藏哪些玄机？

毫无疑问，如此大规模进口地沟油肯定是利益驱动型。最核心的动因来自补贴。美国方面对地沟油每加仑提供1美元的补贴，甚至像加州最多补贴达到2.5美元。这意味着，一加仑地沟油的补贴总额可以达到3.5美元。

简单计算一下，一吨UCO等于238加仑，一吨UCO的补贴金额接近6000美元。要知道，目前一吨航空煤油的价格也不过6700美元左右。换言之，高额补贴让地沟油在美国市场华丽转身变得“很香”。

01

如此大幅补贴的背后是地沟油广阔的应用前景。由于全球“低碳经济”推动，汽车开始电动化，而降碳减排的重点且消耗传统燃油更多的航空业要进行变革，经济成本压力太大，于是使用可持续航空燃料替代目前的航空燃油，是航空业“脱碳”的关键。

相比传统航煤，可持续航空燃料可让飞机以更少的燃料飞行更远的距离，而且它还是一种普适性替代燃料，无需对飞机技术或燃料基础设施进行任何改造，可以减少60%至88%温室气体排放，帮助航司实现低碳飞行。

重点来了——制备生物燃油需要用到食用油，价格低廉的“地沟油”无疑是最佳的原材料。对于美国来讲，使用来自中国的地沟油制备生物柴油，会使美国的原材料成本降低2/3，并且碳密度低于新鲜棕榈油或菜籽油，可以减少高达83%的温室气体排放，这样优质的原材料，简直是宝贝。

或许会有人问，为什么进口中国地沟油。一句话：中国，因为自身的烹饪饮食传统习惯，所以成为全世界上产生地沟油最多的国家之一，每年约产生1000万吨的地沟油。

据部分业内人士预计，今后几个月美国从中国进口餐废油脂量有望再创新高。但这种局面或许不会长久。因为在此情况下，大约5年之内，中国地沟油出口量就将告罄。而且中国本身也需要地沟油做航空生物燃料。

技术端，中国是亚洲第一、世界第四个拥有自主研发生物航空燃油技术的国家，目前中国石化镇海炼化分公司已经可以实现规模化生产，年产10万吨生物航空燃油。国产C919飞机以及ARJ21飞机都加注了生物燃料进行了试飞。

政策端，今年7月31日，国家发布的《关于加快经济社会发展全面绿色转型的意见》中就明确提到，要“加强可持续航空燃料研发应用”。有报告预计到2030年，中国先进生物燃料产量将达2398万吨标煤，需求量将达2746万吨标煤。

看到此，是不是十分憧憬地沟油带来的商机？

02

但把地沟油变成生物燃料也有几道坎需要迈过。首当其冲的就是搜集问题。中国虽然每年产生的大量地沟油，但很多地方尚且缺乏对地沟油回收利用的完善体系，大部分被半地下的“游击队”把持，每年有一半的产量不知所踪。因此，目前尚没有真正大批量向国外出口地沟油的企业。

最大的难题还是成本问题。地沟油变成生物柴油，从回收到加工的全流程成本，大约是普通航空燃油的3倍。另外，生产能力也严重不足，中国已建成的可持续航空燃料项目年产能达20万吨、已宣布的规划产能超300万吨，但相比中国每年3000多万吨的航空燃料消费量，缺口依然很大。

直白点说，要想地沟油迎来替代生物燃料的节点，还需要技术上的突破，进一步降低成本，使生物燃料与传统能源之间找到一个相对的平衡点。

但大麻烦也意味着大机会，地沟油“变身”的过程中就蕴藏着种种商机。

地沟油的收集难题——乱、小、散，尚未形成产业链前端的大企业。好了，这些特点是不是有点类似当年出租车行业有很多“黑车”，不仅难以管理，还容易隐藏不安定因素的情况？

那么，能否按照当年共享经济的模式，用补贴调动资源，用资本玩转产业的路子，将搜集地沟油的行为变成经济行为，让“全民”参与，迅速让搜集地沟油经济行为全国布局？

当然，这只是一个想法，要落地还需要细化，哪位大神有兴趣不妨动动脑筋。

有搜集作为前提，第二个商机也自然而然不是问题——出口给补贴高的国家，比如说目前的美国。而且大企业往往也掌握较强的议价权，毕竟地沟油的总产量也是一定规模的。

最后就是通过院校等资本与技术的合作，突破地沟油变身生物燃料的技术，将成本大幅下降，甚至非常接近传统能源。那样，地沟油的生命力就通过市场的手段得以长久生存下去，而非用补贴的力量。

好了，第一波将地沟油卖到美国的聪明人，已经口袋鼓鼓，第二波中会有谁呢？

【文章只供交流，并非投资建议，请注意投资风险。】

本文来自微信公众号“每日N资本论”，作者：白开水的思考，36氪经授权发布。

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